Traffic Load Forecast Model by Optimally Combined Markov Chain
Dang Anhong,Zhu Shihua,Cheng Jiang
(School of Electronics and Information Engineering,Xi'anJiaotong University,Xi'an 710049,China)

Abstract: A traffic load forecast model by optimally combined Markov chain is presented. The optimally combined model is set up to derive the forecast results by analyzing the factors that affect the variations of traffic load, and the weighting coefficients are derived according to least square principle. The main characteristic of using composite model instead of only one method is that it can make the most of the available factors of the dynamic distribution of mobile station and traffic load so as to avoid the drawback that only partial information is used. Simulation results show that the model can reduce the prediction error and yield higher forecast precision compared tousing only one method, and it therefore provides a valuable means for evaluating the system performance and yield better service performance.
Keywords: traffic load prediction;Markov chain;cellular mobile communications